NSCI 280 Ecology - Portfolio Research Project Resources: Home

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to air pollutants has been suggested as a possible etiologic factor for the occurrence of autism spectrum disorder. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess whether prenatal air pollution exposure is associated with childhood autistic traits in the general population. METHODS: Ours was a collaborative study of four European population-based birth/child cohorts-- CATSS (Sweden), Generation R (the Netherlands), GASPII (Italy), and INMA (Spain). Nitrogen oxides (NO2, NOx) and particulate matter (PM) with diameters of ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), ≤ 10 μm (PM10), and between 2.5 and 10 μm (PMcoarse), and PM2.5 absorbance were estimated for birth addresses by land-use regression models based on monitoring campaigns performed between 2008 and 2011. Levels were extrapolated back in time to exact pregnancy periods. We quantitatively assessed autistic traits when the child was between 4 and 10 years of age. Children were classified with autistic traits within the borderline/clinical range and within the clinical range using validated cut-offs. Adjusted cohort-specific effect estimates were combined using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 8,079 children were included. Prenatal air pollution exposure was not associated with autistic traits within the borderline/clinical range (odds ratio = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.10 per each 10-μg/m³ increase in NO2 pregnancy levels). Similar results were observed in the different cohorts, for the other pollutants, and in assessments of children with autistic traits within the clinical range or children with autistic traits as a quantitative score. CONCLUSIONS: Prenatal exposure to NO2 and PM was not associated with autistic traits in children from 4 to 10 years of age in four European population-based birth/child cohort studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Exposure to ambient air pollution has been associated with reduced size of newborns; however, the modifying effect of maternal ethnicity remains little explored among South Asians. OBJECTIVES: We investigated ethnic differences in the association between ambient air pollution and newborn's size. METHOD: Pregnant women were recruited between 2007 and 2010 for the Born in Bradford cohort study, in England. Exposures to particulate matter (≤ 10 µm, PM10; ≤ 2.5 µm, PM2.5), PM2.5 absorbance, and nitrogen oxides (NOx, NO2) were estimated using land-use regressions models. Using multivariate linear regression models, we evaluated effect modification by maternal ethnicity ("white British" or "Pakistani origin," self-reported) on the associations of air pollution and birth weight, head circumference, and triceps and subscapular skinfold thickness. RESULTS: A 5-µg/m³ increase in mean third trimester PM2.5 was associated with significantly lower birth weight and smaller head circumference in children of white British mothers (-43 g; 95% CI: -76, -10 and -0.28 cm; 95% CI: -0.39, -0.17, respectively), but not in children of Pakistani origin (9 g; 95% CI: -17, 35 and-0.08 cm; 95% CI: -0.17, 0.01, respectively) (pint = 0.03 and < 0.001). In contrast, PM2.5 was associated with significantly larger triceps and subscapular skinfold thicknesses in children of Pakistani origin (0.17 mm; 95% CI: 0.08, 0.25 and 0.21 mm; 95% CI: 0.12, 0.29, respectively), but not in white British children (-0.02 mm; 95% CI: -0.14, 0.01 and 0.06 mm; 95% CI: -0.06, 0.18, respectively) (pint 0.06 and 0.11). Patterns of associations for PM10 and PM2.5 absorbance according to ethnicity were similar to those for PM2.5, but associations of the outcomes with NO2 and NOx were mostly nonsignificant in both ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that associations of ambient PM exposures with newborn size and adiposity differ between white British and Pakistani origin infants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract--Ruqigou Coalfield, being one of the most important coal mining areas in China, has suffered coal fire problems for more than one hundred years. Due to coal fires, about 4. 513 million tons coal resources has been lost each year, and apart from a large volume of CO[sub 2] delivered into air, environmental problems such as land degradation, land pollution and air pollution are also produced. Air pollution, as one related to coal fires, is the most dangerous problems for local people and has already led to vegetation pollution in this area. Land degradation is mainly induced with occurrence of land subsidence, fissures with due to coal mining/coal fires, and debris slide/flow. With development of opencast coal mining, a large volume of waste was produced, which is the major source of land pollution. All these environmental problems are associated with coal mining or coal fires and their comprehensive effects are deterioration of environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract--The content and distributive feature of oil in Meizhou Bay, China during summer were analysed on the basis of water quality survey. The result showed that oil concentration ranges between 5-51 Mu g/dm[sup 3] with an average of 19.8 Mu g/dm[sup 3]. The mixed coefficient is lower. The difference of oil distribution between high tide and low tide is related to the distribution of land pollution and is mainly decided by water dynamics. Average turn-over rate and enrichment coefficient can provide fundamental information to estimate oil concentration in sea water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Health Organization (WHO) has established guidelines for drinking-water quality that cover biological and chemical hazards from both natural and anthropogenic sources. In the most recent edition of Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality (2011), the WHO withdrew, suspended, did not establish, or raised guidelines for the inorganic toxic substances manganese, molybdenum, nitrite, aluminum, boron, nickel, uranium, mercury, and selenium. In this paper, we review these changes to the WHO drinking-water guidelines, examining in detail the material presented in the WHO background documents for each of these toxic substances. In some cases, these WHO background documents use literature reviews that do not take into account scientific research published within the last 10 or more years. In addition, there are instances in which standard WHO practices for deriving guidelines are not used; for example, rounding and other mathematical errors are made. According to published meeting reports from the WHO Chemical Aspects Working Group, the WHO has a timetable for revising some of its guidelines for drinking-water quality, but for many of these toxic substances the planned changes are minimal or will be delayed for as long as 5 years. Given the limited nature of the planned WHO revisions to the inorganic toxic substances and the extended timetable for these revisions, we suggest that governments, researchers, and other stakeholders might establish independent recommendations for inorganic toxic substances and possibly other chemicals to proactively protect public health, or at the very least, revert to previous editions of the Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, which were more protective of public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the relationship between air pollution and climate change. Topics include the health effects of air pollution and climate change such as increased asthma, allergies, and cardiac arrhythmia, the impact of carbon emissions and warmer temperatures on ground-level ozone, and climate mitigation efforts of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) formed in May 2015.

The response of wheat to the variables of climate change includes elevated CO2, high temperature, and drought which vary according to the levels of each variable and genotype. Independently, elevated CO2, high temperature, and terminal drought affect wheat biomass and grain yield, but the interactive effects of these three variables are not well known. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of elevated CO2 when combined with high temperature and terminal drought on the high-yielding traits of restricted-tillering and vigorous growth. It was hypothesized that elevated CO2 alone, rather than combined with high temperature, ameliorates the effects of terminal drought on wheat biomass and grain yield. It was also hypothesized that wheat genotypes with more sink capacity (e.g. high-tillering capacity and leaf area) have more grain yield under combined elevated CO2, high temperature, and terminal drought. Two pairs of sister lines with contrasting tillering and vigorous growth were grown in poly-tunnels in a four-factor completely randomized split-plot design with elevated CO2 (700 µL L−1), high day time temperature (3 °C above ambient), and drought (induced from anthesis) in all combinations to test whether elevated CO2 ameliorates the effects of high temperature and terminal drought on biomass accumulation and grain yield. For biomass and grain yield, only main effects for climate change variables were significant. Elevated CO2 significantly increased grain yield by 24-35% in all four lines and terminal drought significantly reduced grain yield by 16-17% in all four lines, while high temperature (3 °C above the ambient) had no significant effect. A trade-off between yield components limited grain yield in lines with greater sink capacity (free-tillering lines). This response suggests that any positive response to predicted changes in climate will not overcome the limitations imposed by the trade-off in yield components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing share of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants in power systems creates the need for including these renewable sources in power system reliability studies. As such studies analyse the grid on a global scale and start to be performed increasingly by Monte Carlo simulations, modelling of CSP production has to be reasonably simplified in order to reduce the calculation time. The model simplification also concerns the minimisation of the required specific knowledge and input data which enables power system engineers to evaluate the impact of CSP without substantial expertise in its underlying physics and by focusing on the key design parameters. There is a large variety of accurate CSP simulation programs and models, and yet neither of them offers the required simplicity. This study addresses this gap by proposing reduced models for predicting energy output of parabolic trough and central receiver systems. The calculation procedure and its underlying assumptions are presented. The adequacy of the models is demonstrated by comparing their predictions with that of the System Advisor Model for different case scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar thermal power is a promising ‘green’ technology that could contribute significantly – in countries where it may be applicable due to available resources – towards meeting the 2020 and 2050 targets for the free energy production of emissions [Viebahn, P., Lechon, Y., and Trieb, F., 2011. The potential role of concentrated solar power (CSP) in Africa and Europe – a dynamic assessment of technology development, cost development and life cycle inventories until 2050.Energy Policy, 39 (8), 4420–4430]. Especially for the regions where solar radiation is significant, the technology of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants seems to have a great potential, once cost-related issues are resolved. The thermodynamic process, on which the component design of the plant is based, plays a significant role in the optimisation of the efficiency of the derived configuration. This paper aims to present a route for the design of thermodynamic cycles for a CSP, starting from the simplest processes and heading towards more complicated ones. For a reference output capacity, the obtained efficiencies are presented, illustrating the technical benefits of shifting to more advanced thermodynamic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models ( FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS- II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine ( Pinus edulis) and juniper ( Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico ( USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The optimization of the production of fired clay brick is essential for the sustainability of the clay brick industry. While there exist areas for improvement of these bricks’ properties when they are used in severe climates, concerns — including nonrenewable resource depletion, increasing energy costs, and waste management — have become increasingly important in Canadian and global industries. One strategy to address these concerns is to use waste additives as fluxing agents in bricks. Use of these additives can decrease the dependency of the industry on nonrenewable resources and can improve brick strength and durability. The effect nonrecycled waste glass additives have on fired brick durability and mechanical and transport properties was investigated in this study. The variables studied were waste glass particle size and percentage added by mass. Microstructure was investigated using mercury intrusion porosimetry to determine the effect on pore structure. The results yielded an optimal percentage addition of waste glass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems are under increasing pressure from human activities, with land use and land-use change at the forefront of the drivers that provoke global and regional biodiversity loss. The first step in addressing the challenge of how to reverse the negative outlook for the coming years starts with measuring environmental loss rates and assigning responsibilities. Pinpointing the global pressures on biodiversity is a task best addressed using holistic models such as Life Cycle Assessment ( LCA). LCA is the leading method for calculating cradle-to-grave environmental impacts of products and services; it is actively promoted by many public policies, and integrated as part of environmental information systems within private companies. LCA already deals with the potential biodiversity impacts of land use, but there are significant obstacles to overcome before its models grasp the full reach of the phenomena involved. In this review, we discuss some pressing issues that need to be addressed. LCA mainly introduces biodiversity as an endpoint category modeled as a loss in species richness due to the conversion and use of land over time and space. The functional and population effects on biodiversity are mostly absent due to the emphasis on species accumulation with limited geographic and taxonomical reach. Current land-use modeling activities that use biodiversity indicators tend to oversimplify the real dynamics and complexity of the interactions of species among each other and with their habitats. To identify the main areas for improvement, we systematically reviewed LCA studies on land use that had findings related to global change and conservation ecology. We provide suggestion as to how to address some of the issues raised. Our overall objective was to encourage companies to monitor and take concrete steps to address the impacts of land use on biodiversity on a broader geographical scale and along increasingly globalized supply chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the consequences of realistic species loss on the functioning and persistence of vulnerable ecosystems is key to devising conservation strategies when environmental changes are immediate threats. Yet, few studies have provided direct evidence for conservation prioritization and decision-making., We incorporated the quantification of functional diversity based on the Rao index of diversity ( FDrao) into this applied context and examined the consequences of realistic species loss on functional diversity in moorland plant communities widely interspersed within a subalpine zone in northern Japan. The realistic order of species loss was derived from the nested subset pattern in the moorland communities, which was corroborated by selective species tolerance and selective extinction. We analysed the relationships between the FDrao half-life, as an index of each moorland's vulnerability to species loss, and a range of environmental variables describing the moorlands. We then mapped this index across the entire landscape., At most sites, ordered species loss caused a relatively small decline in FDrao until a certain number of species was lost and an accelerating decline thereafter, suggesting relatively low initial vulnerability to species loss. At the other sites, however, ordered species loss caused an approximately proportional decrease in FDrao, suggesting relatively high vulnerability to species loss. The model indicated that sites with higher elevation, higher carrying capacities, or increasing isolation have a shorter FDrao half-life. The mapping of this index allowed us to identify the geographical distribution of sites of high conservation priority., Synthesis and applications . We performed fine-scale assessments of the vulnerability of moorland plant communities to species loss, which is likely to occur under future environmental conditions, by simulating the consequences of realistic species loss for functional diversity. The methods used here can provide urgently needed information to support the prioritization and decision-making involved in conserving ecosystems in the face of global biodiversity loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carabid beetles are important functional components of many terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we describe the first long-term, wide-scale and quantitative assessment of temporal changes in UK carabid communities, to inform nationwide management aimed at their conservation., Multivariate and mixed models were used to assess temporal trends over a 15-year period, across eleven sites in the UK Environmental Change Network. Sites covered pasture, field margins, chalk downland, woodland and hedgerows in the lowlands, moorland and pasture in the uplands, and grassland, heaths and bogs in montane locations., We found substantial overall declines in carabid biodiversity. Three-quarters of the species studied declined, half of which were estimated to be undergoing population reductions of > 30%, when averaged over 10-year periods. Declines of this magnitude are recognized to be of conservation concern. They are comparable to those reported for butterflies and moths and increase the evidence base showing that insects are undergoing serious and widespread biodiversity losses., Overall trends masked differences between regions and habitats. Carabid population declines (10-year trend, averaged across species) were estimated to be 52% in montane sites, 31% in northern moorland sites and 28% in western pasture sites (with at least 80% of species declining in each case). Conversely, populations in our southern downland site had 10-year increases of 48% on average. Overall, biodiversity was maintained in upland pasture, and populations were mostly stable in woodland and hedgerow sites., Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight the need to assess trends for carabids, and probably other widespread and ubiquitous taxa, across regions and habitats to fully understand losses in biodiversity. Land management should be underpinned by a consideration of how wide-scale environmental drivers interact with habitat structure. The stability of population trends in woodlands and hedgerows of species that are declining elsewhere puts these habitats at the fore-front of integrated landscape management aimed at preserving their ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accelerating rates of biodiversity loss may result in a rapid decline in important ecosystem processes such as carbon capture. Whether extirpation-resistant species compensate for the decline in ecosystem processes associated with the loss of extirpation-prone species is poorly understood., We apply a novel approach to answer this question using an assemblage of salt marsh plants. First, manipulations were performed to simulate a realistic sequence of species loss, based on observed sensitivity to disturbance. Then, changes in biomass and primary production of extirpation-resistant species were monitored over three consecutive growing seasons., Extirpation-resistant species did not compensate for the loss of either biomass or primary production associated with the removal of extirpation-prone species., Factors that determine the potential for compensation within ecosystems are discussed. These include resource-regulated compensation rates, the level of functional redundancy within an assemblage and the extirpation resistance of species which possess good compensation traits., Synthesis. These results suggest that we cannot assume extirpation-resistant species will compensate for the decline in ecosystem processes associated with biodiversity loss across all ecosystems. Understanding those factors that influence the ability of ecosystems to compensate for declines in ecosystem processes associated with biodiversity loss constitutes a significant challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities are decreasing biodiversity and changing the climate worldwide. Both global change drivers have been shown to affect ecosystem functioning, but they may also act in concert in a non-additive way. We studied early-stage litter mass loss rates and soil microbial properties (basal respiration and microbial biomass) during the summer season in response to plant species richness and summer drought in a large grassland biodiversity experiment, the Jena Experiment, Germany. In line with our expectations, decreasing plant diversity and summer drought decreased litter mass loss rates and soil microbial properties. In contrast to our hypotheses, however, this was only true for mass loss of standard litter (wheat straw) used in all plots, and not for plant community-specific litter mass loss. We found no interactive effects between global change drivers, that is, drought reduced litter mass loss rates and soil microbial properties irrespective of plant diversity. High mass loss rates of plant community-specific litter and low responsiveness to drought relative to the standard litter indicate that soil microbial communities were adapted to decomposing community-specific plant litter material including lower susceptibility to dry conditions during summer months. Moreover, higher microbial enzymatic diversity at high plant diversity may have caused elevated mass loss of standard litter. Our results indicate that plant diversity loss and summer drought independently impede soil processes. However, soil decomposer communities may be highly adapted to decomposing plant community-specific litter material, even in situations of environmental stress. Results of standard litter mass loss moreover suggest that decomposer communities under diverse plant communities are able to cope with a greater variety of plant inputs possibly making them less responsive to biotic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present study we aimed to investigate whether UV-B radiation can exacerbate effects of pesticides fenoxycarb, pirimicarb, and tebufenpyrad on the survival, reproduction, and population growth rate of the standard test species Daphnia magna. We applied sublethal pesticides' concentrations and UV doses and observed no effects on survival. However, we observed synergistic effects of UV and pesticides on both cumulative reproduction and population growth rate (21 days) for fenoxycarb (100 μg/L) and pirimicarb (10 μg/L), but a less-than-additive effect for tebufenpyrad (5-10 μg/L). In the series exposed to UV and fenoxycarb or pirimicarb, the population growth rate dropped down to 0.1, while in the control series it was around 0.3. The results indicate that concentrations of some toxicants that are nontoxic in standard tests can cause harmful population-level effects when combined with UV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in lowincome areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one-third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock-based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self-sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising atmospheric CO2 levels can dilute the nitrogen ( N) resource in plant tissue, which is disadvantageous to many herbivorous insects. Aphids appear to be an exception that warrants further study. The effects of elevated CO2 (750 ppm vs. 390 ppm) were evaluated on N assimilation and transamination by two Medicago truncatula genotypes, a N-fixing-deficient mutant ( dnf1) and its wild-type control (Jemalong), with and without pea aphid ( Acyrthosiphon pisum) infestation. Elevated CO2 increased population abundance and feeding efficiency of aphids fed on Jemalong, but reduced those on dnf1. Without aphid infestation, elevated CO2 increased photosynthetic rate, chlorophyll content, nodule number, biomass, and pod number for Jemalong, but only increased pod number and chlorophyll content for dnf1. Furthermore, aphid infested Jemalong plants had enhanced activities of N assimilation-related enzymes (glutamine synthetase, Glutamate synthase) and transamination-related enzymes (glutamate oxalate transaminase, glutamine phenylpyruvate transaminase), which presumably increased amino acid concentration in leaves and phloem sap under elevated CO2. In contrast, aphid infested dnf1 plants had decreased activities of N assimilation-related enzymes and transmination-related enzymes and amino acid concentrations under elevated CO2. Furthermore, elevated CO2 up-regulated expression of genes relevant to amino acid metabolism in bacteriocytes of aphids associated with Jemalong, but down-regulated those associated with dnf1. Our results suggest that pea aphids actively elicit host responses that promote amino acid metabolism in both the host plant and in its bacteriocytes to favor the population growth of the aphid under elevated CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research examines land use change in Israel––an intriguing but understudied setting with regard to population–environment dynamics. While Israel is fairly unique with regard to its combined high levels of economic prosperity and high population growth, this case study has relevance for developed countries and regions (like the south and southwest regions of the USA) which must balance population growth and urban development with open space conservation for ecosystem services and biological diversity. The population–land development relationship is investigated during the period from 1961 to 1995 at three spatial scales: national, regional (six districts), and local (40 localities). There is a positive correlation between population growth and land development rates at the national scale, and while remaining positive, the strength of the relationship varies greatly at regional and local scales. The variation in population–land use dynamics across scales is used to garner insight as to the importance of geography, policy and historical settlement patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing population, rapid urbanization, rising incomes, and changing consumption preferences stimulate intensification of livestock production and excessive fertilization of crops in China. We present an innovative approach that sheds light on options to prevent negative environmental consequences of food production. Trends indicate that agricultural production expansion will take place in 'profitable' locations around densely populated areas, where there are generally insufficient natural resources to recycle production wastes. This will likely lead to increased environmental impacts and risks to human health, with the largest impacts in close proximity to population hotspots. We identify trends in Chinese agricultural production and devise and compare feasible mitigation scenarios. We present a spatial allocation procedure that facilitates management of agricultural production expansion, accounting for environmental and health constraints. This procedure, based on behavioral principles, uses a spatial risk preference structure induced by local conditions, including environment, production, and demand, with important research and policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how demographic variation translates into variation in population growth rate (λ) is central to understanding population dynamics. Such understanding ideally requires knowledge of the mean, variance and covariance among all demographic rates, allowing the potential and realized contribution of each rate to λ to be estimated. Such studies require integrated monitoring of all demographic rates across multiple years and are consequently rare, particularly in declining populations and for species with less tractable life histories. We used 12 years of comprehensive demographic data from a declining ring ouzel ( Turdus torquatus) population to estimate the mean, variance and covariance in all major demographic rates and estimate potential and realized demographic contributions to λ. Population size decreased from 39 to 13 breeding pairs (−67%) and mean λ was 0·91 during 1998-2009. This decrease did not reflect a substantial concurrent decrease in any single key demographic rate, but reflected varying combinations of demographic rates that consistently produced λ < 1. Basic prospective elasticity analysis indicated that λ was most sensitive to adult survival, closely followed by early season reproductive success and early brood first-year survival. In contrast, integrated elasticity analysis, accounting for estimated demographic covariance, indicated that λ was most sensitive to early brood first-year survival, closely followed by re-nesting rate, early season reproductive success, late-brood first-year survival and adult survival. Retrospective decomposition of variance suggested that first-year survival contributed most to observed variation in λ. However, demographic comparison with other related species suggested that adult survival, but not reproductive success or post-fledging survival, averaged lower than expected throughout the 12-year study. These data demonstrate that multiple approaches, including comprehensive demographic and comparative analyses and due consideration of conflicting answers, may be necessary to accurately diagnose the demographic basis of population change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present study we aimed to investigate whether UV-B radiation can exacerbate effects of pesticides fenoxycarb, pirimicarb, and tebufenpyrad on the survival, reproduction, and population growth rate of the standard test species Daphnia magna. We applied sublethal pesticides' concentrations and UV doses and observed no effects on survival. However, we observed synergistic effects of UV and pesticides on both cumulative reproduction and population growth rate (21 days) for fenoxycarb (100 μg/L) and pirimicarb (10 μg/L), but a less-than-additive effect for tebufenpyrad (5-10 μg/L). In the series exposed to UV and fenoxycarb or pirimicarb, the population growth rate dropped down to 0.1, while in the control series it was around 0.3. The results indicate that concentrations of some toxicants that are nontoxic in standard tests can cause harmful population-level effects when combined with UV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consequences of deforestation for aboveground biodiversity have been a scientific and political concern for decades. In contrast, despite being a dominant component of biodiversity that is essential to the functioning of ecosystems, the responses of belowground biodiversity to forest removal have received less attention. Single-site studies suggest that soil microbes can be highly responsive to forest removal, but responses are highly variable, with negligible effects in some regions. Using high throughput sequencing, we characterize the effects of deforestation on microbial communities across multiple biomes and explore what determines the vulnerability of microbial communities to this vegetative change. We reveal consistent directional trends in the microbial community response, yet the magnitude of this vegetation effect varied between sites, and was explained strongly by soil texture. In sandy sites, the difference in vegetation type caused shifts in a suite of edaphic characteristics, driving substantial differences in microbial community composition. In contrast, fine-textured soil buffered microbes against these effects and there were minimal differences between communities in forest and grassland soil. These microbial community changes were associated with distinct changes in the microbial catabolic profile, placing community changes in an ecosystem functioning context. The universal nature of these patterns allows us to predict where deforestation will have the strongest effects on soil biodiversity, and how these effects could be mitigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change includes multiple stressors to natural ecosystems ranging from direct climate and land-use impacts to indirect degradation processes resulting from fire. Humid tropical forests are vulnerable to projected climate change and possible synergistic interactions with deforestation and fire, which may initiate a positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO2. Here, we present results from a multifactorial impact analysis that combined an ensemble of climate change models with feedbacks from deforestation and accidental fires to quantify changes in Amazon Basin carbon cycling. Using the LPJmL Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, we modelled spatio-temporal changes in net biome production (NBP); the difference between carbon fluxes from fire, deforestation, soil respiration and net primary production. By 2050, deforestation and fire (with no CO2 increase or climate change) resulted in carbon losses of 7.4–20.3 Pg C with the range of uncertainty depending on socio-economic storyline. During the same time period, interactions between climate and land use either compensated for carbon losses due to wetter climate and CO2 fertilization or exacerbated carbon losses from drought-induced forest mortality (−20.1 to +4.3 Pg C). By the end of the 21st century, depending on climate projection and the rate of deforestation (including its interaction with fire), carbon stocks either increased (+12.6 Pg C) or decreased (−40.6 Pg C). The synergistic effect of deforestation and fire with climate change contributed up to 26–36 Pg C of the overall decrease in carbon stocks. Agreement between climate projections ( n=9), not accounting for deforestation and fire, in 2050 and 2098 was relatively low for the directional change in basin-wide NBP (19–37%) and aboveground live biomass (13–24%). The largest uncertainty resulted from climate projections, followed by implementation of ecosystem dynamics and deforestation. Our analysis partitions the drivers of tropical ecosystem change and is relevant for guiding mitigation and adaptation policy related to global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savannas are a major terrestrial biome, comprising of grasses with the C4 photosynthetic pathway and trees with the C3 type. This mixed grass–tree biome rapidly appeared on the ecological stage 8 million years ago with the near-synchronous expansion of C4 grasses around the world. We propose a new hypothesis for this global event based on a systems analysis that integrates recent advances in how fire influences cloud microphysics, climate and savanna ecology in a low carbon dioxide (CO2) world. We show that fire accelerates forest loss and C4 grassland expansion through multiple positive feedback loops that each promote drought and more fire. A low CO2 atmosphere amplifies this cycle by limiting tree recruitment, allowing the ingress of C4 grasses to greatly increase ecosystem flammability. Continued intensification of land use could enhance or moderate the network of feedbacks that have initiated, promoted and sustained savannas for millions of years. We suggest these alterations will overprint the effects of anthropogenic atmospheric change in coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life cycle analysis of climate and disturbance effects on forest net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is necessary to assess changes in forest carbon (C) stocks under current or future climates. Ecosystem models used in such assessments need to undergo well-constrained tests of their hypotheses for climate and disturbance effects on the processes that determine CO2 exchange between forests and the atmosphere. We tested the ability of the model ecosys to simulate diurnal changes in CO2 fluxes under changing air temperatures ( Ta) and soil water contents during forest regeneration with eddy covariance measurements over boreal jack pine ( Pinus banksiana) stands along a postclearcut chronosequence. Model hypotheses for hydraulic and nutrient constraints on CO2 fixation allowed ecosys to simulate the recovery of C cycling during the transition of boreal jack pine stands from C sources following clearcutting (NEP from −150 to −200 g C m−2 yr−1) to C sinks at maturity (NEP from 20 to 80 g C m−2 yr−1) with large interannual variability. Over a 126-year logging cycle, annualized NEP, C harvest, and net biome productivity (NBP =NEP–harvest removals) of boreal jack pine averaged 47, 33 and 14 g C m−2 yr−1. Under an IPCC SRES climate change scenario, rising Ta exacerbated hydraulic constraints that adversely affected NEP of boreal jack pine after 75 years. These adverse effects were avoided in the model by replacing the boreal jack pine ecotype with one adapted to warmer Ta. This replacement raised annualized NEP, C harvest, and NBP to 81, 56 and 25 g C m−2 yr−1 during a 126-year logging cycle under the same climate change scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Savannas comprise a large area of the global land surface and are subject to frequent disturbance through fire. The role of fire as one of the primary natural carbon cycling mechanisms is a key issue in considering global change feedbacks. The savannas of Northern Australia burn regularly and we aimed to determine their annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and the impact of fire on productivity. We established a long-term eddy covariance flux tower at Howard Springs, Australia and present here 5 years of data from 2001 to 2005. Fire has direct impacts through emissions but also has indirect effects through the loss of productivity due to reduced functional leaf area index and the carbon costs of rebuilding the canopy. The impact of fire on the canopy latent energy exchange was evident for 40 days while the canopy was rebuilt; however, the carbon balance took approximately 70 days to recover. The annual fire free NEP at Howard Springs was estimated at −4.3 t C ha−1 yr−1 with a range of −3.5 to −5.1 t C ha−1 yr−1 across years. We calculated the average annual indirect fire effect as +0.7 t C ha−1 yr−1 using a neural network model approach and estimated average emissions of fine and coarse fuels as +1.6 t C ha−1 yr-1. This allowed us to calculate a net biome production of −2.0 t C ha−1 yr-1. We then partitioned this remaining sink and suggest that most of this can be accounted for by woody increment (1.2 t C ha−1 yr-1) and shrub encroachment (0.5 t C ha−1 yr-1). Given the consistent sink at this site, even under an almost annual fire regime, there may be management options to increase carbon sequestration by reducing fire frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]